Uganda’s Electoral Landscape

A case of the last three Presidential Elections (2011-2021)

Author

Tom Nangosyah

Published

January 4, 2026

Introduction

Uganda’s electoral process has been marked by significant complexity and controversy. Between 2011 and 2021, the country held three presidential elections that saw President Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, face various opposition challengers. This report analyzes official election results data from these three cycles to identify patterns, trends, and geographic shifts in electoral support.

Important Context

Before diving into the data, it’s crucial to understand the limitations and context of this analysis:

Uganda’s elections have been characterized by what international observers and civil society groups describe as a highly constrained political environment. Reports from organizations like the European Union Election Observation Mission, Human Rights Watch, and local monitoring groups have documented:

  • Restrictions on opposition campaigning, including arrests of candidates, teargassing of rallies, and limitations on media coverage
  • Internet shutdowns during election periods, particularly in 2021
  • Intimidation and violence against opposition supporters and journalists
  • Lack of a level playing field in terms of access to state resources and media
  • Questions about vote counting and tallying transparency, particularly at the district level

This analysis focuses strictly on the official results as reported by the Electoral Commission of Uganda. The numbers tell one story, but they exist within a broader political context that shapes how elections are conducted, how citizens vote, and how results are reported.

Geographic patterns in voting may reflect genuine political preferences, but they may also reflect variations in the intensity of state influence, opposition organizing capacity, or the nature of electoral administration across regions.

With this context in mind, let’s examine what the official data reveals about voting patterns over the past decade.

Methodology

Data Sources

This analysis uses official presidential election results from three election cycles:

  • 2011 Election: Museveni vs. Besigye (main opposition)
  • 2016 Election: Museveni vs. Besigye (main opposition)
  • 2021 Election: Museveni vs. Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine, main opposition)

All data was sourced from the publicly released polling station-level results currently maintained at the github repository kalulu.

Data Cleaning

The raw election data required substantial cleaning to enable comparative analysis across the three election cycles:

  • Standardized column names across datasets, as each election used different naming conventions.
  • Handled different file formats: 2011 data used semicolon delimiters and contained formatting issues.
  • Converted numeric values: Some datasets used non-standard number formatting (e.g., “1.025” for 1,025)
  • Removed invalid records: Filtered out header rows that were repeated within data files.
  • Aligned geographic hierarchies: Matched district, county, and polling station codes where possible.
  • Calculated key metrics: Derived turnout rates, vote shares, winning margins, and competitiveness scores.

The main challenge was that district boundaries and names changed between elections, making direct district-to-district comparisons imperfect for some regions.

Key Metrics

  • Vote Share: Percentage of valid votes received by a candidate.
  • Turnout Rate: Total votes cast divided by registered voters.
  • Winning Margin: Difference between winner and runner-up as a percentage of valid votes.
  • Competitiveness: Inverse of the absolute winning margin (1 = tied race, 0 = complete dominance).

National-Level Findings

Declining Support for Museveni

According to the official results, President Museveni’s national vote share declined over the decade:

  • 2011: 68.6%
  • 2016: 60.6%
  • 2021: 58.4%

This represents a 10.2 percentage point decline from 2011 to 2021. Meanwhile, the main opposition’s vote share increased from 26.1% in 2011 to 35.6% in 2016, before settling at 35.1% in 2021, a net gain of 9 percentage points.

Growing Electorate

The voter registration rolls expanded significantly:

  • 2011-2016: +1.4 million voters (+10.0%)
  • 2016-2021: +2.8 million voters (+18.6%)
  • Total growth: +4.2 million voters (+30.5%)

The substantial increase in registered voters between 2016 and 2021 is notable and raises questions about demographic changes, registration drives, and the relationship between voter roll expansion and turnout patterns.

Turnout Patterns

Figure 2: Voter turnout peaked in 2016 and declined in 2021, while competitiveness has remained relatively stable but low

Turnout patterns in the data show:

  • 2011: 59.3% average turnout
  • 2016: 65.7% (peak)
  • 2021: 61.4% (decline)

The drop in turnout for 2021 coincided with COVID-19 restrictions and what civil society groups described as a particularly repressive campaign environment, including a total internet shutdown on election day.

Geographic Patterns

District-Level Winners

In 2021, according to official results:

  • Museveni won 116 districts
  • Opposition won 30 districts

Biggest Swings: Where Did Support Shift?

The data reveals dramatic geographic shifts in voting patterns between 2011 and 2021.

Figure 3: District-level changes in Museveni’s vote share between 2011 and 2021 show significant regional variations

Districts with largest declines in Museveni support:

Table 1: Top 10 districts where Museveni lost the most support
District 2011 (%) 2021 (%) Change (%)
KAYUNGA 75.5 35.0 -40.5
MPIGI 66.1 26.5 -39.7
BUVUMA 69.8 32.4 -37.4
BUTAMBALA 62.7 25.6 -37.1
LUUKA 81.7 45.2 -36.5
KAMULI 80.7 45.0 -35.7
BUIKWE 68.2 32.5 -35.7
MUKONO 59.8 25.7 -34.1
MAYUGE 77.3 43.3 -34.0
KALANGALA 62.0 28.1 -33.9

Districts with largest gains in Museveni support:

Table 2: Top 10 districts where Museveni gained the most support
District 2011 (%) 2021 (%) Change (%)
MOROTO 54.8 87.3 32.6
AMUDAT 65.8 97.6 31.7
NWOYA 26.7 55.3 28.6
KOTIDO 60.4 83.2 22.8
GULU 29.2 50.4 21.2
SOROTI 34.7 55.5 20.8
AMOLATAR 56.1 75.3 19.2
MOYO 55.3 74.4 19.1
KOBOKO 54.1 71.8 17.7
PADER 46.7 63.6 16.9

Regional Patterns

Several regional patterns emerge from the data:

  • Central Region (Opposition Gains): The data shows massive losses for Museveni in districts surrounding Kampala, particularly in Busoga subregion. Kayunga saw a 40.5 percentage point drop, while Kamuli dropped 35.7 points. This aligns with Bobi Wine’s urban base and his youth-driven “People Power” movement.

  • Karamoja Region (Museveni Gains): The northeastern Karamoja region shows dramatic gains for Museveni, with Moroto (+32.6%), Amudat (+31.7%), and Kotido (+30.1%) all swinging heavily toward the incumbent. Observers have noted that these gains may coincide with increased government development investment in a historically marginalized region.

  • Northern Uganda (Mixed): The north shows mixed patterns. Gulu, a former opposition stronghold, swung +21.2% toward Museveni between 2011 and 2021. This shift could reflect post-conflict development, generational change, or shifts in local political alignments.

Opposition Strongholds in 2021

Figure 4: The 15 districts where Bobi Wine achieved his highest vote shares in 2021

Bobi Wine’s strongest districts include:

  • Kampala (73.8%): The capital and Uganda’s most urban center.
  • Kasese (69.7%): Western district with history of opposition support.
  • Wakiso (66.3%): Sub-urban district surrounding Kampala.
  • Kalangala (64.5%): Islands in Lake Victoria.

Interestingly, turnout in these opposition strongholds tended to be lower than the national average.

Kampala, for instance, recorded only 43.2% turnout compared to the 61.4% national average.

Opposition supporters and observers have suggested this reflects difficulties voting due to logistical issues and security presence in urban areas.

What the Numbers Tell Us And What They Don’t

From a purely numerical perspective, the official results show:

  1. Erosion of dominance: Museveni’s vote share has declined steadily, from nearly 70% to under 60%
  2. Opposition consolidation: The main opposition has grown from about 26% to 35% of the vote
  3. Geographic polarization: Support has become more concentrated, with stronger opposition in urban/central areas and stronger government support in peripheral regions
  4. Modest competitiveness: Despite the shifts, most districts remain non-competitive, with margins exceeding 20 percentage points

However, numbers alone cannot capture the full reality of Uganda’s electoral dynamics:

  • Unequal playing field: The extent to which opposition candidates can campaign freely varies significantly by region and over time
  • State resources: The use of government resources, including security forces and administrative structures, creates advantages that aren’t visible in vote tallies
  • Media environment: State control of major media outlets and restrictions on independent journalists affect information access
  • Vote counting transparency: Questions persist about whether reported results accurately reflect ballots cast, particularly in rural areas with limited observer presence

International election observers from the EU, Commonwealth, and other groups have consistently noted that Uganda’s elections do not meet international standards for democratic elections. The 2021 election was particularly criticized for:

  • Pre-election detention of opposition candidates
  • Violence against opposition supporters
  • Blocking of social media and messaging apps
  • Restrictions on election observation
  • Irregularities in the vote tallying process

For readers wishing to explore these issues in more depth, the following reports and statements provide detailed evidence and assessment:

  1. Pre-election detention & violence against opposition supporters
  1. Blocking of social media / internet shutdown
  1. Restrictions on election observation
  1. Irregularities in vote tallying
  1. Democratic benchmarks

Geographic Patterns and Their Interpretations

The regional swings visible in the data could reflect multiple factors:

  1. Genuine political preferences shaped by:
  • Economic performance and development priorities
  • Generational differences in political outlook
  • Local leadership and organizational capacity
  • Historical relationships with the state
  1. Structural and institutional factors including:
  • Variations in access to state patronage
  • Differential capacity of opposition to organize
  • Regional differences in media penetration
  • Varying levels of intimidation or pressure

The data cannot distinguish between these explanations, for example a 32-point swing towards Museveni in Moroto might reflect genuine appreciation for new roads and schools, or it might reflect a region where opposition organizing faces particular obstacles, or both.

Conclusion

This analysis has examined official election results from Uganda’s 2011, 2016, and 2021 presidential elections. The data reveals clear trends: declining support for President Museveni, growing opposition strength, and increasing geographic polarization of voting patterns.

However, election data tells only part of the story. Uganda’s elections occur in a context where opposition parties face significant structural disadvantages, media freedom is constrained, and the electoral process itself has been questioned by international observers.

The numbers are real, ballots were counted and results were reported. But understanding what they mean requires acknowledging the environment in which those ballots were cast.

For those seeking to understand Uganda’s political trajectory, election results are one data point among many. They should be considered alongside:

  • Reports from election observation missions
  • Documentation of human rights conditions
  • Analysis of media freedom and civic space
  • Economic indicators and development patterns
  • Demographic and generational shifts

Appendix

The datasets analysed in this report are publicly available from the Uganda Electoral Commission and mirrored in the Uganda Elections Tools and Resources repository:

All code used for data cleaning and analysis is available upon request.